Three findings
Each finding is a self-contained briefing — five minutes on a phone, with the full workings underneath.
Finding 1 · The Market Case
Not investible as a pure-profit business
−$5bn
median value today of a project promising $366bn of revenue, across 10,000 simulations
The proponent's 27% return collapses under megaproject cost overruns, operational risk and an uninsurable frontier. The commercial case doesn't clear on its own terms.
Read the market case →Finding 2 · The Net Treasury Effect
Governments lose more than they gain
−$1.95bn
annual tax loss to land-based producers at peak production, against +$1.12bn of ISA income
Seabed supply depresses the prices of cobalt, nickel, copper and manganese mined in dozens of countries — destroying more mining tax revenue than the seabed regime collects.
Read the treasury case →Finding 3 · Sponsor State Outcomes
No corporate income tax
48% of cases
the public-benefit test
Sponsor state profit-based revenues are more fragile than ISA royalties, arrive later, and are worth less.
Read the sponsor-state case →the full Discussion Paper
The complete financial analysis — methodology, models and sources — publishes here on launch day. Documentation and models are collected in the DSM library.